COLTS 101

The high-stakes poker game that's been ongoing between Peyton Manning and Jim Irsay is moving toward the moment when one or the other will "call." After several months of raising the ante and bluffs, the moment of truth is at hand.

Ironically, neither of the two individuals left at the table called for the game. The credit for that should go to Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star. He made the initial bet when he turned his interview with Manning into a national story by suggesting that Manning was using his forum to send a message to the Colts that he was dissatisfied with the direction of the franchise and that he would take his services elsewhere.

Irsay said, "I'm in" with his poorly chosen comments to the media following the Chuck Pagano press conference. Since that moment, both have been holding their cards close to the vest, playing for the ultimate pot.

Kravitz, it should be noted, hasn't "folded" per se, but has already achieved his goal of simply being in the game. He's parlayed his role in the affair into several national appearances and has, I'm sure, significantly bumped up his "Q" rating significantly. In this game, he didn't have the cards to compete for the pot, but did his job by getting Manning and Irsay at the table.

Manning has a considerable hand he can play. He's holding three aces. He's arguably the greatest quarterback to have ever played the game which, if healthy, gives him considerable leverage with the threat to take his talents elsewhere. No player of his caliber, not even Brett Favre, has ever been out on the open market. The second ace is his marketability, especially here in Indianapolis. It can also be argued that no player in any sport had ever been more connected to a city and its fans than Peyton and Indianapolis. I've yet to see the Michael Jordan Children's Hospital in Chicago. His final ace is his impact on the Colts, if healthy. With Manning in 2010, essentially the same roster, perhaps more injury riddled at other positions, qualified for the playoffs. Without Manning, the club went 2-14. No player in the NFL means more to his team's success and is less replaceable than a healthy Peyton Manning does to the Colts.

Irsay just may be able to beat that hand though. While Manning is indeed a valuable commodity if healthy, the marketplace for his skills may be fairly limited due to salary cap constraints. Irsay has also used this "game" to gage the possible backlash if Manning were to leave. Yes, a number of sentimental fans will be irate and surely some fallout will occur at the box office. But with Kravitz and the vast majority of local media saying "get over it, it's time to move on" that fire will lack the media oxygen it needs to burn for very long. And while Manning certainly does mean almost everything to the Colts in the short-run, Irsay is holding a most valuable card in the number one pick in the draft. While anyone with any sense realizes that not even the "great" Andrew Luck can replace Peyton Manning, the media love Luck has already received has spawned a cottage industry of Colts Luck jerseys already. From a marketing standpoint, Irsay has another "face" already lined up in waiting.

The big card that completes Irsay's inside straight is his own position. While Manning is almost 36, this is the last pot he will ever be in on. He's got to decide how to maximize his winnings and minimize his losses. In both dollars and peripheral value, Manning has to decide where he's best suited to be geographically over the next two or three years. Irsay, on the other hand, has plenty in reserve. Even if he loses this hand, he's still owner of the Colts and knows very well he will be at the table in the future playing for other big prizes. 

Ultimately, it's that hand that will give Irsay the leverage to "call" Manning and ask to see his cards. The only question that remains is whether or not Manning will play this out to that point, which would most likely see Irsay raking in his winnings and Peyton leaving the table. Or will Manning realize that as good as his hand looks, Irsay's is better? Will he fold and allow the Colts' owner to walk away the "winner," knowing that Irsay will "split the pot" with him in the back room?

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